PoliticsHome - All todays's politics in one place All about Lisbon? Afghanistan? Or just a rogue poll? | PoliticsHome

Monday 23rd November 2009 | 13:57

All about Lisbon? Afghanistan? Or just a rogue poll?

Westminster is divided on the Ipsos poll that showed just a 6% Tory lead. A senior Tory MP thinks it is all about the Lisbon treaty; others that it is Afghanistan; many that it is simply a rogue poll.

Analysis by
PoliticsHome

The latest PoliticsHome insider research reveals the extent of the disagreement within the political community over the Observer/Ipsos MORI poll, which showed the Tory lead reduced to six points.

At one extreme, a senior Tory MP linked the narrowing in the gap to David Cameron's decision not to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. The MP's analysis follows below:

'This Ipsos Mori poll shows something important about the public's view of Cameron. Although the establishment were quick to move on from the referendum problem, the issue may yet haunt the Conservatives.

Most got it wrong when they viewed it through the prism of Europe, in fact the promise to give a referendum was more about DCs character than anything else. Up untill then he looked and sounded good when compared to a discredited PM and Government however when he withdrew the 'Cast Iron' pledge to grant the public a referendum he looked and sounded just like the rest of the political class. The detail doesn't bother the public, it is the fact that a promise was broken and this is leading to a cynicism about DC which is dangerous. It allows the public to question all other commitments on taxation, cuts and society. '

Part of a trend?

Overall, fifty per cent of the PoliticsHome Phi100 panel (which includes MPs and peers from across the political spectrum as well as media commentators and executives, strategists and think tank directors) expect other polls to show the Tory lead reduced to single figures.

A slightly smaller section of the panel dismiss the result as a rogue poll. Conservative panellists tended to favour this viewpoint, while Labour supporting and non-aligned panellists were more likely to see the poll result as part of a trend.

Overall, the close result indicates that the jury is still out on whether we are witnessing a genuine change in the political climate.

Is Afghanistan playing a part?

Another Conservative MP believed that the narrowing of the gap was due to their supporters being unhappy about the EU, and that the party was 'coming over as pro Afghan war'.

A third, however, did not share this view, saying 'Polls will go up and down - but the overall trend away from the Government will be maintained.'

A thought leader on the panel said: 'It's MORI and therefore very volatile - but this election IS about a BIG choice and it's certain to get tighter before either side wins.'

Leave a comment...

John Ward

15:23 |
23 Nov 2009
Recommended
4

I keep a record of all these polls from the various pollsters, and the trend has been a gentle climb for both the Conservatives and (slightly less) for Labour during the months following their dips as a result of the MPs' expenses issue.

The Conservatives then "topped out", and there is a hint of a very slow decline in recent weeks. However Ispos MORI's methodology tends to widely varying results so this latest one does look inconsistent — though perhaps not to be classed as a "rogue poll" as such.

I expect a double-digit lead to continue in most if not all polls from now on, unless something drastic happens — which hasn't been the case recently, again suggesting the MORI poll is such a sample error effect or similar.

John Ward

15:27 |
23 Nov 2009
Recommended
8

Another point worth putting on the record is that the fieldwork for this poll was conducted at the same time as the ICM poll for The Guardian, which showed a 13% Conservative lead over Labour. Why the MORI one took so long to publish is a mystery: the firm doesn't usually delay them, nor do the newspapers as a rule.

Perhaps it was an attempt to make it look like a more recent survey than the ICM one — but it wasn't.

christina speight

15:36 |
23 Nov 2009
Recommended
5

The Insiders really ought to read both UK Polling Report and Stephan Shakespeare of YouGov (In Centre Right) on this before pontificating.

Firstly MORI uses a different system of weighting from other but does ask ask respondents how they voted in 2005 , The absurd outcome is that THIS figure showed the biggest swing with the figure a month ago showing the Tories on 32% and this time 29%, Labour similarly WAS 43% and this time shows the figure at 46%. These are supposed to be FACTS!! An erratic sample to say the least.

Also ICM has a sample of 1000 and of these only 799 showed a voting inclination and MORI calculated its top line figures only on those certain to vote - a mere 449 people.

No wonder MORI continues to astound with its results and that only the Observer - and that only occasionally - uses it

jose

16:02 |
23 Nov 2009
Recommended
1

This is why, when analysing IMORI, I always put more credence on the weighted unfiltered figure. Which last month had C40% L31%. This month's figure is C34% L34%.

James

17:36 |
23 Nov 2009
0

I guess you won't be relying the unfiltered results anymore then

LITTLE ANGUSSIE

15:55 |
23 Nov 2009
Recommended
10

if the electorate are so fickle as to blame David Cameron for not having a referendum on a RATIFIED treaty which would have no value other than two numbers then we are in trouble.

If they choose to forget that it was Gordon Brown who renaged on a manifesto pledge and never gave us the promised referendum on Europe, and subsequently tying David Cameron's hands on the issue (remember Brown sneaking out of a cupboard after the world's media had left the building and slithering in to sign the treaty), then we will be in real danger,

if the voters are prepared to forget the last 12 years of civil liberties being eroded by this big brother government; a government that by any measure you choose - either socially, economically, financially, morally and structurally, has left the country destitute and broken. Then we truly will get what we deserve for the next 5 years.

Will we be bribed by Brown's blandishments and largesse that will come in the pre budget report like rabbits from a hat, (with no chance of being implemented or paid for), or will the British public remember with a vengeance the lying, cheating, mendacity, illegal wars, hounding David Kelly to his death over a false dossier, trillions in debt and the bloated self-styled saviour of the world who has delivered us into the lap of German and French policy, and kick Brown and his utterly discredited administration into obscurity where they deserve to stay for the rest of their political lives - that is the stamp of this present government led by an arrogant bully boy who tells us he is really shy

Anna

16:09 |
23 Nov 2009
Recommended
3

Of course it's a rogue poll - I believe they interviewed under 500 people!

It did not tally with the other two polls taken at exactly the same time, and you have to ask yourself why they held it over till yesterday.

According to that idiot macintyre, Labour are actually ahead in the polls!

jose

16:27 |
23 Nov 2009
Recommended
1

"I believe they interviewed under 500 people!"

Your belief is incorrect.

Billericay Dave

16:31 |
23 Nov 2009
Recommended
2

If anyone is stupid enough to vote labour and they get back in, the british public deserve everything they get ! More borrowing, more taxes, more public non jobs, more people on benifits, more state control, less freedom, less money in your pocket so I cant see any good reason not to vote for them.

Cheerful godfish

17:07 |
23 Nov 2009
Recommended
3

This poll was conducted on 13th November. Since then there were two further polls which were published in last week's papers which show the Conservative lead steady at 14%. By delaying the publishing of this poll for a week, the Observer is trying to create a story of collapsing suport for the Tories and is hoping that this will influence the polling intentions of floating voters. The fact is that this was a rogue poll and if they had published it last week, nobody would have taken it seriously. Instead we now have all major news channels and newspapers focusing on a irrelevant poll.

Stripey Jack

17:15 |
23 Nov 2009
Recommended
2

This is a clear example of the media trying to influence political opinion by giving the false impression that this is the most recent opinion poll rather thatn admitting that it was held ten days ago.

bernard

18:03 |
23 Nov 2009
Recommended
2

I wonder how many people realise that this poll was sampled against just 449 people. It is ridiculous to extrapolate GE results from one single opinion poll with a tiny sample. Absolutely silly, especially when you consider it is totally different from all the other polls.

Never seen so much hysteria.

Richard Ireland

19:57 |
23 Nov 2009
Recommended
3

Looks as if your "experts" have been proved wrong already!

Maths tutor

20:11 |
23 Nov 2009
0

I coach maths and science at A level. I would be happy to run a class for the majority of your "experts" who clearly don't have a clue about basic statistics. Shouldn't take more than an hour. Mind you, they're no worse than the rest of the media.

"Ex-" = has-been, "-spurt" = drip under pressure

little angussie

21:09 |
23 Nov 2009
Recommended
1

tell me then Jose by what criteria will you be measuring tonight's poll?

RK

21:31 |
23 Nov 2009
Recommended
1

There is a poll out tonight given the tories a 17 point lead, this poll was taken over the weekend just gone (not last weekend). I wonder if the media will be announceing that?? As a previous comment Its all to influence floating voters, this is all labour spin, The tories beware there is probably more of this to come as we get closer to the election.

David Dee

14:23 |
24 Nov 2009
0

Regardless as to which poll you believe the one true ststistic is that the Tory party, who should be polling in the high 40s,low 50s, are fighting to attain the 40% mark and are no where near the sort of support that Bliar (up to 54%)was getting leading into the 1997 General election.

So why is this ? Why are the electorate not being drawn to the Tory party.

The fault lies entirely with Cameron. He looks and is totally false. he has never had a persona other than the one that the major decision makers in his life (Sammy, Sammy's Mammy, Daddy etc) have bestowed upon him. He is indecisive, a ditherer to boot. He hesitated at the start of the global recession, he hesitated on the EU.

In fact he has hesitated on any policy announcements apart from his two 'day one' policies: IHT proposals giving massive tax benefits to the already rich and the repeal of the Hunting acts so that the Hurray Henries can once again watch an exhausted fox being torn to shreds.

And there, in a nutshell, is his problem. Neither of these policies, to which Cameron has applied a high priority, mean much to the ordinary working man.

In fact, in the absence of the 150,000 non-doms required to make the IHT proposals 'self-supporting', the ordinary working man will be required to dig deep to pay for this massive handout to millionaires.

to date the Government has not made a great deal of attacking these policies but in the next few months they will form the basis for their attack on Cameron to show just how out of touch he really is and, historically, the party in power gain support in the run up to a General election!

Latest on
Party Politics

The Live Wire

Latest from The Green Box

Today's Storys

Ones to watch

Other stories today

Insider Research

Understanding the heart of Westminster

All about Lisbon? Afghanistan? Or just a rogue poll?

Westminster is divided on the Ipsos poll that showed just a 6% Tory lead. A senior Tory MP thinks it is all about the Lisbon treaty; others that it is Afghanistan; many that it is simply a rogue poll.

Part of a trend?

Is Afghanistan playing a part?

Leave a comment...

John Ward

John Ward

christina speight

jose

James

LITTLE ANGUSSIE

Anna

jose

Billericay Dave

Cheerful godfish

Stripey Jack

bernard

Richard Ireland

Maths tutor

little angussie

RK

David Dee

More about this story

Recommended

Latest

On air

Video and Audio

Latest on Party Politics

News

News

PoliticsHome News

Blog

PoliticsHome News

Sections

News Front Page

Pro Dashboard

Research

About Us

Search PoliticsHome

Download

Latest on
Party Politics