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Thursday 12th November 2009 | 14:09

Insiders now expect closer result at general election

A large proportion of insiders continue to expect a Conservative majority at the election, although there are signs that predictions may be beginning to be revised downwards

Analysis by
PoliticsHome

Expectation of a Tory majority at the general election is holding firm within Westminster, although there are signs that a closer result is now anticipated.

That’s the latest result of the PoliticsHome Phi100 election outcome tracker, which monitors expectations for the next general election over time within the political community.

Seventy six per cent of the Phi100 panel - which is comprised of MPs and peers from across the political spectrum as well as political editors and media commentators, party strategists, think tank directors and academics - expect an outright Conservative majority.

Closer result expected

A closer look at the figures, however, reveals that a smaller majority is now expected.

The proportion of panellists expecting a strong Conservative majority is down seven percentage points since September: falling from thirty five to twenty seven per cent.

Meanwhile, the proportion expecting a slim majority for the party has risen from forty three to forty nine per cent.

The proportion expecting a hung parliament has also increased: from eleven to nineteen per cent.

While the new figures may not yet be causing any sleepless nights for the Conservatives, they appear to indicate a slight revision to the experts’ consensus.

PoliticsHome will continue to monitor tracker results closely over the coming months as the election approaches.

Too early to say?

Caution was expressed in the comments left by some panellists.

A right-leaning parliamentarian said: 'Too early to say - I keep writing this, and am encouraged to carry on by Tuesday's Populus poll.'

A non-aligned media panellist said: 'The Conservative lead is still big but their share of the vote isn't. Labour only needs to gain a few percentage points for the game to change.'

Leave a comment...

alan

17:41 |
12 Nov 2009
Recommended
7

Now I am going to write something which may surprise you. INSIDERS have no greater knowledge than ECONOMISTS had over the economy!! Now that may come as a shock, but these 'Insiders' are too far up their own backsides to know what the great unwashed out here in the real world are thinking.

May I, respectfully, suggest you have an OUTSIDERS poll, using people, like myself, who comment on your posts, but who do not live anywhere near the Westminster village. You may find that OUTSIDERS will be far more accurate in their forecasts than these INSIDERS!!

As for a close election. May I suggest your insiders take off the record "Dreaming, I'm always dreaming" and consult and listen to real people, out here in the real world.

I would not be hurt if you called us 'The Great Unwashed' !!

An expert, these days, is not what it says on the can! They are great after the event but pretty lousy prior to it!

Culverin

18:14 |
12 Nov 2009
0

You sound desperate! The Tories will be more of the same, the only difference is that they went to more exclusive public schools unlike us 'great unwashed'.

David Dee

17:51 |
12 Nov 2009
Recommended
5

There has been no significient move in the Tory slice of the electorate since before their conference. If anything it has dropped at a time when they would have expected to pull away from Labour and now with the recession about to come to an end and with the electorate gaining confidence in the economy they may have missed the boat.

The blame for this lies with Cameron. By his refusal to flesh out any policies there was an expectation that when he did it would be wonderous to behold. However when the time came, at the Tory conference, and all he produced was a proposal to freeze the pay of teachers, nurses and policemen,presumably to pay for his IHT proposals which gives massive tax cuts to the already rich, the electorate are, at last, becoming aware that Cameron, as with his original silence on the global crisis clearly shows, has not got an idea.

Slim majority for the Tory party ?? He should be so lucky !!

I think that the blame for this li

Bob

18:11 |
12 Nov 2009
0

Great post, very thoughtful and unusual on this site that seems to be dominated by far right Tories (UKIP?).

I won't be voting Labour but I also won't be voting Tory on the strength of their hollow policies (ideas in the real world) and their total ineptitude when it comes to foreign affairs.

Anna

17:55 |
12 Nov 2009
Recommended
2

Really! has this anything to do with Brown's supposed sympathy amongst the public over the last 2 days?

Ever since Ashcroft came on board and there was a mass walkout, it strikes me you are trying so hard to be impartial that you have completely shifted gear to the left, and it seems you haven't really noticed!!!!

heckmonwyke

21:51 |
12 Nov 2009
Recommended
1

Who in the general public takes notice of media pundits/academics/mps/peers,who live in there own little political world and have no idea how ,why, or who the odinary people will vote for. The reason the gap is shrinking is because voters are seeing through daves caring compassion and wooly ideas. After the europe fiaco we dont think he will win any power back from Brussels or even try.Dave and his inner circle of cronies should think about moving away from the centre back to a more rightwing stance inline with the publics concerns on a whole range of issues.BUT HE WONT

JC

08:08 |
13 Nov 2009
Recommended
1

Hecmonwyke 21.51 12 Nov

I was thinking exactly the same sentiments these type of so called polls bear no validation to the mass of the people.

Bill Holden

08:23 |
13 Nov 2009
0

As ever the weakness of this report is in the quality of the research that informs it! There was no question along the lines of:

If there was a serious independent candidate on you ballot paper would you vote for them in preference to the parties on offer?

We need to be able to hear all the candidates in order to make a real choice, at the moment TV, radio and the press ignore the independent candidates to the piont that any resulting election is corrupt. It is not a question of if you agree or disagree with the candidate, rather that you should be aware of their position in order to make an informed choice.

This website is letting down the democratic process.

Johnny Norfolk

09:22 |
13 Nov 2009
Recommended
3

The country is crying out for Thatcher type reforms again, without the unpleasantness. The people know what needs to be done. The leadership of the Tory party has been taken over by the wets who are more Blair like than Tory. We need strong honnesty and firm action to sort the country out as Mrs T did. but not quite the way she did it.

patricialedger

13:09 |
13 Nov 2009
Recommended
1

Cameron's somewhat lacklustre leadership is evidenced by his avoidance of addressing the concerns of the voting public, and why they are now turning in droves to UKIP and BNP for some action on the issues that concern them. Cameron is a opportunist politician, not a conviction politician - who is these days - and his inability or reluctance to come up with strong policies that voters believe might actually be put into action, could make them lose patience even more.

The Concervatives must realise that they are in the lead mainly by default, simply because nobody wants Gordon and his crew any more. Cameron is not particularly liked by the voters and this could prove to be his undoing.

Barbara

14:23 |
13 Nov 2009
0

The next election is open, we have new emerging parties that are getting votes so they could alter the balance, and why not. This country is tired of the same old politics so we may be tempted to try one of the new. New party, new faces, faces we can look at and not think, 'have they robbed us or cheated on us', we need a fresh start, for me one of the new parties offers what I want so my vote will be going there. I'm not interested in the ritual of abuse they have or the old saying, 'wasted vote', its simply not true, we have seen it can work if enough people have enough faith to a new course, and this country needs vision not the old dogma, I for one have had enough of that. Bring on the new lets start afresh, and most of all lets stand as Great Britian and not be submerged into the monster EU.

Barbara

13:38 |
18 Nov 2009
0

The more I listen to all the three main parties the more I'm convinced none of them have listened or learnt. The people, the majority, who don't have much to say, but suffer the consequences of their mistakes, will decide the outcome of the election and not the parliament square boffins. What I'm hearing from the ground in the West Midlands, they don't intend voting for any of the main three, it will be one of the new emerging parties. People have just been ignored, legislated against, cheated and stolen from, so they will decide and my guess is this country is about to have a five party fight, and a hung parliament, and better democracy has a result.

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Insiders now expect closer result at general election